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CompuBox Breakdown: Wilder vs. Arreola

For Wilder to win he needs to work his left jab overtime to keep Arreola at long range, to work on the scar tissue around his eyes, and to fend off Arreola's still-considerable power shots, the only real threat to Wilder's standing as WBC champion. Keeping the fight at ring center is a must because the ropes will give Arreola a chance to drape his weight on Wilder and to land his short power shots. Finally, he must test Arreola's chin early because while it was durable earlier in his career he has been floored in two of his last four fights and hurt in every one of them. For Arreola to win he needs to get himself in the best shape possible because when he does he is capable of producing enough volume to give himself a fighting chance. Inside the ring he needs to be aggressive from the start and throw as many bombs as possible in the hopes that one will strike Wilder's chin. When Arreola lands he is still capable of pyrotechnics and we have yet to see Wilder survive a full-out threat when he's badly hurt. 

Our suggestion: For Arreola this is an improbable third title shot that only came about when Alexander Povetkin failed a pre-fight drug test and their May bout was canceled. This is ironic considering that Arreola has twice failed drug tests that turned wins into no-decisions, including his most recent fight against Travis Kauffman. If he's clean and if he's in shape he can test Wilder -- for a while. But Wilder is taller, knows how to "fight tall," is always in great shape, has benefited from not one but two training cycles and can crack as well. Wilder is in his prime and Arreola is well past his, plus Arreola is more easily hit, hurt and dropped these days. Expect all three to happen here. 

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