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Fans' Predictions Side With Canelo's Boxing Record


Saul "Canelo" Alvarez is a big favorite in Saturday's Cinco De Mayo weekend feature against Amir Khan. One week before the bout, the odds have Canelo winning by 78.9% over his smaller opponent.

Fans predicting the bout at the Throwdown Scoring Mobile App also have Canelo as the early favorite at 85.8%. The difference between the fans and the odds is noticeable but it isn't much. However, if we take a close look at the fans' picks, they are picking Canelo to win based on his boxig record.

If you add up the Canelo votes, you'd come up with a total of 35.8% of fans saying that the fight would likely go 9-12 rounds, which is almost identical to those who say it'll be over in 5-8 rounds (36%). Now based on Canelo's actual boxing record since his championship years began in 2011, 8 of his 12 bouts (66.66%) ended after round 6 including 7 bouts which went to Round 12.  Four of his wins over that period or 33.33% ended within Rounds 5-8 and only 1 bout, the one versus James Kirkland, ended within four rounds.

Based on this historical data, Canelo Alvarez isn't the quick finisher that you'd expect a hulking Mexican champ would be. He's a fighter not unknown to slow starts but as in every fight, he's a grinder who gets tough as the fight goes longer. So while the fans expect Canelo to win, not many expect a quick ending to this mega fight.

That characteristic of Canelo is Amir Khan's window of opportunity. While he's the smaller man in this bout, Khan has a surprising half inch advantage in reach. While that isn't really significant, what it says is that Khan can fight from the outside and beat Canelo on points, that is if his notorious glass jaw doesn't break first. That may also be the reason why 12% of the 13.8% fans who predicted Khan to win said that he would win by decision. While that possibility may look like  long shot, it's plausible enough to happen, given Khan's skillset and championship experience.

So, what do you think about this bout? Get your predictions in at the Throwdown Scoring Mobile App:

To download app, click here:  http://apple.co/1VPMpp  and http://goo.gl/t8ptbv